By
Rand Stephens (Houston)
Mass
transit in major metropolitan areas may be reaching a fork in the road. Over
the last few years, ridership has declined in both rail and bus services across
the country. Factors such as lower gas prices, increased telecommuting, rising
car ownership, and of course, Uber and Lyft have all contributed to this national
trend. Commuter cities, including Houston, are now faced with
either continuing to invest in their current transportation infrastructure, or,
preparing for a variety of scenarios and outcomes that include fast-approaching
technology such as autonomous buses and driverless ridesharing vehicles.
Although Amazon has not
publicly stated why they dismissed Houston for their second headquarters, its
dismissal has spurred an internal reflection of what this great city has to
offer and what can be improved upon. Lack of digital talent and relative lack
of public transportation are two factors that many believe kept Houston off the
shortlist. Our last blog addressed the first claim. This month,
public transportation is our focus.
Rapidly-changing
transportation technology is headed towards a disruption in the transportation
industry that can translate into huge opportunities down the road. Arizona’s relaxed
driving laws has put them at the forefront of driverless
testing with companies such as Google’s Waymo and Intel’s
Mobileye. Keolis, a transportation company, has already begun public transit
service on open roads in Nevada, and Transdev is launching operations of their
autonomous shuttles on open roads this year. The advancements are happening
fast and furious. How will public transportation agencies respond?
Investing
in traditional modes of public transportation and infrastructure is pointless
when the future of transportation is shifting towards driverless technology. Houston
Metro recently spent $2.1 billion dollars on the expansion of the Houston light
rail system, including new park-and-ride lots and new buses for “controversial
dedicated lanes along Houston’s posh Post Oak Boulevard.” (“Metro
drawing up long-term Houston regional transit plan”, Houston Chronicle, Feb.
17, 2017) The Woodlands
Express is also planning to add new routes to accommodate increased population
growth and increased job dispersal. Yet, ridership is down for both The
Woodlands Express (18.7% decrease from the daily average in
2014) and for the Houston
Metro (7% decline from
last year for all mass transit). In fact, nationally, the trend is the same,
with 31 of 35 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. reporting a drop in public
transportation ridership. (“Falling
transit ridership poses an ‘emergency’ for cities, experts fear”, Washington
Post, March 24, 2018)
Alternative forms of mobility are undoubtedly a factor, and mass transit
systems should embrace the innovations and get onboard the transportation
revolution.
“To remain relevant, transit agencies must have a vision for the future, including the role that driverless technology will play.” - Lauren Isaac, Director of Business Initiatives for the North American Operation of EasyMile
When you’re the fourth largest
city in the country, with a population of 2.4 million, you’re going to have traffic
issues. However, Houston’s
freeways overall are very well-designed with multiple lanes that
are spacious and have lots of access roads for convenient turnarounds. This makes
it perfectly positioned to support a system of ACES (Autonomous, Connected,
Electric and Shared) vehicles. The technology for them to communicate with each
other is already here. (“Self-Driving
Taxis, Electric Trucks Arrive in 2019”, Houston Chronicle, Nov. 21, 2017) The fact that Houston does not have a heavily equipped
mass transit network may turn out to be a blessing. It is an opportunity for
transit agencies to keep their eye on the road and work toward producing pilot
programs and plans that re-imagine public transportation. The traditional
public transit business model has already been disrupted. It seems senseless to
continue investing in what will soon-be an outdated infrastructure…even if it
means we lose an Amazon HQ2 in the process.
